The real estate industry is projected to have one of the largest increases in real outputan increase from $977.8 billion in 2012 to almost $1.3 trillion in 2022. This industry provides contract- or fee-based support services, including drilling, taking core samples, and making geological observations at prospective sites, for the mining and quarrying of minerals and for the extraction of oil and gas. Incorporated by Royal Charter, Registered Charity no. The decrease in employment at a 1.2-percent annual rate during the projection period also is faster than the annual decrease of 0.9 percent experienced during the 20022012 period. Faster growth in wages for new hires and accelerating inflation are the main causes of the jump in salary increase budgets in recent months. 39 percent of respondents in our survey said that the increase in inflation played a factor in their salary increase budget estimated for 2022. Explore our latest viewpoints, thought leadership and news, offered by our CIPD experts and informed by our professional community. Salary increase budgets may be adjusted upwards in the coming months as more companies adjust their policies to account for the acceleration in wages and inflation. Currently, inflation is exerting an upward force on compensation, but we have not seen evidence of compensation growth subsequently pushing up inflation. Results from our latest Salary Budget Planning Survey suggest that 96% of companies globally will increase salaries. The annual growth rate of 5.7 percent makes software publishers the second-fastest-growing industry in terms of real output. The construction industry was one of the hardest hit industries during the recession that ended in 2009. If you are a current Affiliate member, you may be eligible to receive additional discount on your WorldatWork membership. Amazonhas also increased the maximum base pay from $160,000 to $350,000 for corporate and tech employees to support in recruiting and retaining top talent. The average NV Energy bill for July is expected to reach $470 in Southern Nevada, up from $337 last year, and the average bill in Northern Nevada is projected at $212, up from $159 in 2022, says . By contrast, these sectors experienced job losses at a rate of 2.0 percent per year during the 20022012 period. (See tables 3, 4, 5, and 6.) Real output in the manufacturing sector is projected to rise from just over $4.4 trillion in 2012 to just over $5.6 trillion in 2022, an increase of nearly $1.2 trillion. Although personal consumption expenditures declined from 2007 to 2009 (the period of the latest recession), they started to rebound in 2010. Richard Henderson, "Industry employment and output projections to 2022," Because consultants can be hired temporarily and on as-needed basis, they represent a lower cost alternative to full-time staff. (See table 3.) All rights reserved. In New Data from Salary.com, Planned 2022 Salary Increases for American Visit our sites for the latest information on people management and development. WorldatWorks January 2022 Salary Budget Quick Poll revealed that organizations are increasing their previously planned salary budgets to address the competitive labor market and inflation. Among the goods-producing sectors, construction is projected to add the largest number of jobs, just over 1.6 million, reaching almost 7.3 million by 2022. Projected growth rates for some industries may appear uncharacteristically high, either as a result of low initial levels of employment and output in 2012 or, in the case of industries that escaped the effects of the recession, as a result of expectations of continued historical growth. Real output in the communications equipment manufacturing industry will be driven by increased demand for smartphones, smartphone applications, and wireless communications devices. Employment is projected to increase by 121,200, rising from 800,500 in 2012 to 921,700 in 2022, an annual rate of increase of 1.4 percent. (See table 3.) The survey sought to answer questions around monthly allowances and common practices such as who receives a vehicle allowance versus a company vehicle, who is provided fuel cards, and whether maintenance and repair and oil change and tire replacement are provided. (See table 5.) Real output is projected to rise from $165.9 billion in 2012 to $262.9 billion in 2022. document.getElementById("sa-year-span").innerHTML = new Date().getFullYear() Salary.com. The sectors role in the U.S. economy has changed over time; today, that role is greater in innovation, productivity, and international trade, rather than in job creation.31 While new manufacturing jobs will be added over the projection period, these employment gains will not make up for the job losses that occurred over the last decade. In addition, the sector is expected to experience the fastest output growth rate4.1 percent per yearamong the goods-producing sectors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections Program. (See tables 3 and 5.) CIPD members can access earlier reports via theHR and L&D archive database. Despite this rapid growth, construction real output and employment are not expected to return completely to their prerecession levels. The 1.9-percent projected annual growth rate in employment during the 20122022 period also is slower than the 2.4-percent growth rate seen in the 20022012 period. This employment growth contrasts with the 3.4 million jobs that were lost between 2002 and 2012. (See table 1.). Real output in the forestry industry also is projected to increase by $1.9 billion, at an annual rate of 2.2 percent, to reach $9.3 billion in 2022. Increased pressure to reduce government spending and budget deficits will contribute to employment declines in the federal government. Employment in this industry is expected to increase by 27,900, an annual increase of 0.6 percent, to reach 507,500 in 2022. Because wholesale trade has a large employment base, employment in this sector has an annual growth rate of only 0.8 percent. With the burst of the credit bubble in 2007, the financial activities sector was severely affected by the recession, losing 60,800 jobs between 2002 and 2012. The construction sector is a good example of the lag in employment rebound after a recession; in that sector, employment fell by 16.0 percent between 2008 and 2009 and grew by 2.0 percent between 2011 and 2012. Even though output is expected to increase in all goods-producing sectors, the percentage of nominal output that these sectors contribute to the economy is expected to decline. The survey was conducted in June of 2021 by Salary.com, the leading SaaS provider of cloud-based compensation market data, surveys and analytics. Although the number of jobs added over the projection period is greater than the 413,400 jobs added between 2002 and 2012, the projected annual growth rate is slower than the 4.7-percent growth rate experienced during the previous decade. Employment in this industry is expected to increase by 2.9 million, to reach 27.1 million in 2022. Real output is projected to grow from $317.5 billion in 2012 to $397.1 billion in 2022, an increase of $79.6 billion. However, the expected employment level of 104,400 in 2022 is still below the level of 107,400 seen in 2002. In addition, real output in the industry is projected to grow at an annual rate of 4.0 percent, increasing from $126.3 billion in 2012 to $187.5 billion in 2022. Compensation is going up. But, is it enough? | Mercer US 21 For more information, see Woodward, The U.S. economy to 2022. This would slow GDP growth to below current expectations by economists (3.9 percent year-on-year, according to a Bloomberg Consensus Survey). Councils are invitation-only, peer-led communities of senior executives that come together to exchange knowledge, accelerate career development, and advance their function. Within that context, the article presents the industry-level perspective of the BLS employment projections. Employment is expected to increase by 7,500, to reach 55,200 by 2022. Although real output in the construction industry is expected to recover, the projected output level for 2022 is slightly below that of 2002, when output was at just under $1.2 trillion. Although the recession ended in 2009, total nonagricultural wage and salary employment tends to lag output in recovery and did not start to grow until 2011. 41% of organizations will have a higher salary increase budget in 2022 than 2021. The computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing industry is projected to have the fastest growth in real output among all industries, with output increasing at 9.2 percent annually. Employment in the industry is projected to reach just over 5.6 million in 2022. (See table 3.) WALTHAM, MA (September 1, 2021) Salary.coms Annual U.S. National Salary Budget Survey reveals that 41 percent of organizations plan on having a higher salary increase budget in 2022 than they did in 2021, representing the first significant shift in merit increases in the last 10 years of survey data. Employment in retail trade is expected to rise by more than 1.0 million, to reach almost 16.0 million by 2022. Actual and projected pay increase data at the city and national levels. The number of jobs in this industry is projected to increase from almost 4.0 million in 2012 to 5.2 million in 2022, an increase of more than 1.2 million jobs, at an annual growth rate of 2.7 percent, the eighth fastest among all industries. Employment in this subsector is projected to fall by 142,300, an annual rate of decrease of 1.4 percent, to reach a level of 951,500 in 2022. Looking at 2022, greater scrutiny on the labor market will continue among both employers and employees. This difference is due to the sectors large employment base. Real output is expected to increase by $241.5 billion, at an annual rate of 3.6 percent, to reach $818.2 billion in 2022. PAS offers AGC members a special AGC discount to access PAS products. The majority of the growth in employment can be attributed to an increase in the number of nonagricultural wage and salary workers, who will account for more than 98 percent of projected jobs in the upcoming period. During that time, some companies elected to deliver both merit increases and cost-of-living increases, though they were frequently administered on two different dates. What is the overall market competitiveness at base pay within your organization? Sign up to be notified when the next survey opens for participation.Notify me when the next survey opens! Output in this industry is expected to increase from $61.5 billion in 2012 to $79.6 billion in 2022, an increase of $18.1 billion, which is larger than the $2.3 billion increase experienced during the previous decade. (See figure 2.) (See tables 5 and 6.) Despite declining employment, about 4,700 openings for adult basic and secondary education and ESL teachers are projected each year, on average, over the decade. The 1.9-percent annual growth rate of employment over the projection period also is slower than the 8.1-percent annual growth rate experienced during the 20022012 period. Facing ongoing change in 2021, organizations around the world were forced to continually adapt and be resilient. The same study stated an anticipated 2.9% average and 3.0% median budgeted merit increases for 2022. The rapid increase in wages and inflation are forcing businesses to make important decisions regarding their approach to salaries, recruiting, and retention. The real concern with compensation growth and inflation is the wage price spiral. This projected increase is the third largest among all industries. For example, in the early 1980s, the United States had double-digit inflation with salary increase budgets of over 10%. Faster wage growth for new hires. Find market rates for jobs by location, industry, and size. He led the Help Wanted OnLine, Full Bio The November Salary Increase Budget Survey shows that almost half of respondents (46%) said that the increase in wages of new hires played a factor in salary increase budget estimates for 2022, and 39% said that increased inflation played a factor. At the same time, there are no signs of inflation slowing down, and it may remain elevated in the coming months, increasing the need for cost-of-living adjustment. OConnell sees other ramifications. Educational services. Expected pay awards in the private sector remain at a median of 5%; however, public sector pay award expectations are at just 2%. Manufacturing is projected to experience a slight decline in employment over the projection period. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (historical data) and Employment Projections Program (2022 data). (See table 1.) Patent Numbers US 6,862,596 and 7,647,322. The projected employment decline in apparel manufacturing is faster than the 8.2-percent annual decline experienced during the 20022012 period, whereas the employment decline in leather and allied product manufacturing is slower than the 5.2-percent annual decline experienced during the 20022012 period. Eight of the top 10 countries with the highest real salary increases globally are from Asia-Pacific this year, shows the Salary Trends Report by ECA international. 6 For more information on the projections for the macroeconomic variables, see Maggie Woodward, The U.S. economy to 2022: settling into a new normal," Monthly Labor Review, December 2013, https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2013/article/the-u-s-economy-to-2022-settling-into-a-new-normal.htm. Overall wage growth dramatically accelerated during the past 6-8 months. More than ever, making the most of your capital means solving a complex risk-and-return equation. These sectors also are expected to account for more than half of the job gains within the service-providing sectors, as well as the entire economy. For example, in the 2010-2020 projections, the number of wage and salary jobs in construction was projected to grow from 5.5 million in 2010 to almost 7.4 million in 2020, an annual rate of increase of 2.9 percent. The November Conference Board Salary Increase Budget Survey portends a 3.9% jump in wage costs for firms in 2022, compared to 3% reported in April. In addition, the projected output growth of 3.2 percent per year is faster than the 1.7-percent-per-year growth seen between 2002 and 2012. Members of The Conference Board get exclusive access to the full range of products and services that deliver Trusted Insights for What's AheadTM including webcasts, publications, data and analysis, plus discounts to conferences and events. The 15 largest economies in the world are forecasting an average increase of 4.3%, which is 3 percentage points higher than the actual increase of 4.0% in 2021. Of employers with hard-to-fill vacancies, 40% had skills shortage vacancies, whereby applicants for advertised roles lack the technical skills required. Autumn 2022. Growth in shale gas production, in which new technologies such as horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have made production more efficient, is expected to continue over the next decade.27 The increased demand for oil and gas is expected to spur further exploration for oil and gas reserves. In addition, employment in this industry is projected to experience one of the largest increases over the projection period, rising from almost 5.7 million in 2012 to more than 6.1 million in 2022, an increase of 470,400 jobs. Manufacturing. Next year's planned pay increases would be the highest on record since 2008. December 2013, https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2013.39. Richard Henderson Despite this fast employment growth, the industrys real output is relatively small. You can also find more information here. Julie Murphy (See table 2. The facilities support services industry provides operating staff to perform support services, such as janitorial, maintenance, and reception services, within a clients facility. According to the report by consulting firm Eckler Ltd., the national average base salary increase for next year is projected at 4.2 per cent, excluding planned salary freezes, which parallels 2022 . The projected loss of 25,100 jobs, at an annual rate of decline of 0.2 percent, contrasts with the 89,500 jobs added between 2002 and 2012, at an annual growth rate of 0.7 percent. The information sector is one of the three sectors (utilities and the federal government are the other two) within the service-providing sectors that is expected to experience a decline in employment over the projection period. Our team is working to resolve. Aging Baby Boomers and pandemic-related worker shortages have created this scenario where we have more jobs than we have people willing, or able, to work.. Support activities for mining is projected to have the largest increase in employment of all mining industries. (See table 3.) Pay and Benefits in a High Inflation & Recessionary Environment, Economy Watch: Emerging Markets View (February 2023), Small improvements in inflation and spending in March, Inflation and spending moderated in February, January CPI data show road ahead will be bumpy, 2021s Hot Wage Growth Will Likely Cool by Years EndBefore Surging Again by 2023. Dissatisfaction and reduced productivity by employees who feel disengaged is another ramification.. When inflation significantly increases, consideration of cost-of-living increases typically becomes more prevalent. 18 For more information, see Woodward, The U.S. economy to 2022.". Changing demographics, as well as the upcoming retirement of the baby-boom generation, are expected to lower the labor force participation rate. The electric power generation, transmission, and distribution industry is projected to see an employment decline that is larger than that in any other industry within the utilities sector and one of the largest overall. According to the latestContractor Compensation Quarterly (CCQ) published byPAS, Inc., construction executive staff wage increases came in at 5.5% for 2022 and are also projected to rise by an average 4.7% by 2023 year-end. Despite a 2.5% pay increase for much of the department's unionized workforce that summer, the starting hourly wage for corrections officers was still nearly $9 below what FedEx was offering. The industrys real output (compensation) also is projected to fall by $20.1 billion, from $146.2 billion in 2012 to $126.1 billion in 2022, an annual rate of decline of 1.5 percent. The median expected basic pay increase has risen from 4% to 5%, the highest since the time series started in 2012. As the economy continues to improve in the wake of the latest recession and as demand for domestic goods rises, so will the demand for wholesale trade services. All rights reserved. (2) Includes wage and salary data from the Current Employment Statistics survey, except for data on private households, which are from the Current Population Survey. This would mark the highest rate since 2008. Actual increases were higher than predicted. Every 2 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) provides employment projections that look at long-term employment trends. The situation in this challenging labor market certainly tests an organizations prior compensation decisions. The exception is Brazil, which is projecting a 6.2% salary budget increase in 2022 compared to 7.1% in 2021. After being a non-issue in wage determination for several decades, sizable cost of living adjustments may be making a comeback. SalaryExperts April 2022 National Compensation Forecastexplains the impact of inflation: Inflation can influence the growth of total compensation, and the extent of that influence also varies depending on the level of inflation, with high inflation being related to higher levels of compensation growth. Find out how salary increase rates are projected to change in the coming months. (See table 4.) Evaluate IT position salaries with this in-depth survey. The projected increase of $220.5 billion also is larger than the $136.9 billion increase seen in the previous decade, and the expected annual growth rate of 3.4 percent is faster than the 2.8-percent growth rate experienced during that decade. The market-leading CompAnalyst SaaS platform accelerates compensation workflows, delivers real-time data, and powers accurate, equitable, and competitive compensation. Although the recession ended in 2009, total employment, which tends to lag in recovery, did not begin to rebound until 2011.2 Employment in some sectors, such as health care and social assistance, grew over the recession period, seemingly unaffected by adverse economic conditions, while employment in other sectors, such as construction and manufacturing, experienced declines. This increase is slightly down from the 704,100 jobs added between 2002 and 2012. We are continually contacted by client companies and others to discuss the difficulties they experience in finding and retaining talent in virtually every market sector around the world. Growth in wages for new hires and accelerating inflation are the main causes of the jump in salary increase budgets. 2022 Trends in employee pay - WTW - Willis Towers Watson While projected to increase, employment in the goods-producing sectors is expected to continue its downward trend as a share of total employment. Additional insights and analyses are included in this report; 250 organizations completed the . Examines the health of the US economy from the perspective of CEOs. Residential investment is projected to grow at 7.2 percent annually between 2012 and 2022, a substantial improvement over the 5.0-percent annual decline experienced during the 20022012 period. Consider segmenting by employee level (e.g., hourly, professional, executive), performance level or even by areas in which youre having trouble attracting and retaining (e.g., digital talent). However, if inflation continues to increase, this phenomenon may become a reality. Consider a lump-sum payment or a one-time retention bonus to offset inflation in 2022. This increase continues the trend seen in the 20022012 period, in which the share of total nominal output attributed to the service-providing sectors grew by 1 percentage point. (See table 2.) The poll also found that when budgeting for adjustments or other increases, 67% of respondents said those are applied as a market/competitive adjustment. The health care and social assistance sector is projected to have the most job growth, adding almost 5.0 million jobs. ), Monetary authorities, credit intermediation, and related activities, Petroleum and coal products manufacturing, General state and local government except compensation and consumption of fixed capital, The individual and family services industry, which provides a variety of social services to children, elderly people, people with disabilities, and others, is projected to have the second-fastest growth in employment and the ninth-largest increase in employment. In a series of brief surveys, you'll access key data points like annual increase budgets, structure adjustments and incentive usage that meet your immediate compensation planning needs. This increase is larger than the $336.0 billion increase in real output seen in the previous decade. Gender pay gap reporting: Wheres the story? At the same time, business leaders will have to decide how much they will pass the additional labor costs to consumers through price increases. WorldatWork projected a national total salary budget increase average at 3.3% for 2022, which the firm's director of Total Rewards content, Alicia Scott-Wears, said "signified not only . The projected growth rate of 0.7 percent is an improvement over the 0.1-percent annual rate of decline seen between 2002 and 2012. The goods-producing sectors are expected to reverse the trend of declining employment experienced between 2002 and 2012, with a rebounding construction sector accounting for most of the employment growth over the projection period. The increase in residential investment and nonresidential structures investment during the 20122022 period is expected to spur growth in employment and output in the construction sector. There is a clear upward trend from the salary increase budgets reported at the beginning of 2022. Although the projected annual decline of 2.9 percent is one of the fastest among all industries, it is slower than the annual decline of 4.4 percent seen in the previous decade. While the prevailing salary increase rate remains at three percent, the percent of organizations giving 2-3 percent increases has dropped to its lowest point since 2019. Within this article, sectors generally refer to two-digit NAICS categories, subsectors to three-digit NAICS categories, and industries to either two-, three-, or four-digit NAICS categories. Limit the Use of My Sensitive Personal Information, Concerns related to cost management, such as inflation or rising cost of supplies (48%), Anticipated stronger financial results, actual or forecasted (43%). | More from Gad Levanon, PhD, 0 Comment (See tables 5 and 6.). This growth rate is almost double the 1.2-percent growth rate in employment seen during the 20022012 period. Manufacturing is projected to shed 549,500 jobs between 2012 and 2022, an annual rate of decline of 0.5 percent, which is slower than the 2.4-percent rate of decline experienced during the previous decade, in which more than 3.3 million jobs were lost.